The national mood: hostages, increasing police violence, Haredi draft, and concerns that we're not up to a war in the north
A few images of a drive to Tel Aviv yesterday speak volumes, as do several pieces from the press this past weekend. We read Hagai Segal and Ran Baratz.
We’re wrapping up this week—in which the “north” and the question of whether we’re going to full out war with Hezbollah is still the main story—with some glimpses at what one sees and reads around here.
Among other issues:
The hostages—the issue is all over, everywhere, as well it should be.
Concerns that police violence is increasing, likely as a result of Ben-Gvir’s instructions, is spreading.
Even on the right, Netanyahu is increasingly seen as detached and without many options.
Hagai Segal argues that the population’s patience with the Haredi draft issue has run out, and that a broad government that will replace this one, likely without the Haredim, would put a stop to it. If we don’t change things, he says, Iran’s plan to destroy the Jewish state by 2040 could well become more than a plan.
Alarmingly, Segal notes that if one looks at the ages of the soldiers falling in battle, there are more and more 19-year-olds. That means, he says, that the army is sending into battle young men who haven’t completed their training, because the IDF is simply running low on manpower.
Ran Baratz, another noted political and military analyst, argues that the IDF simply isn’t up to the challenge of a war in the north, and that we should put it off until we’ve had a chance to rebuild the army.
We begin with a few images from a drive to Tel Aviv yesterday (taking photos while I was driving may not have been the wisest move in the world, but it worked out ok … traffic was at a crawl ….)
On this construction site in Tel Aviv, just west of the Ayalon Highway, two signs about the hostages.
The sign on the building reads: “Without the hostages, Israel will run out.” This is reference to the issue of Israel’s sacred obligation to its citizens—à la Gideon Argov’s comments about the “social contract” in Tuesday’s podcast.
The letters zayin (ז) and lamed (ל) are highlighted because ז״ל or zichrono livracha means “May their memory be for a blessing” or RIP.
And the two triangles of the Star of David are separated so it looks like a sand clock running out of time.
Further up the highway, at the Arlozorov exit, graffiti of the sort one sees everywhere:
Graffiti reads: תחזירו את אליה כהן הביתה!—“Bring Eliya Cohen home!” Eliya, 26, was at the Nova music festival and taken hostage on October 7.
And finally, for now, the police. The demonstrations are growing each week, and so is the police force’s use of violence. There’s a widespread assumption that this is on the orders of Itamar Ben-Gvir, who though convicted for violence several times, is now in charge of the police force.
This shot, from Givatayim yesterday afternoon, is a clever play on words. The Hebrew word for “police” is mishtarah, or משטרה. Here, the graffiti says, מהשטרע עבריינית, “the mishtarah is criminal.”
But note that the last letter of mishtarah has been swapped out. Instead of a heh ה, there’s an ayin ע. That way, the word means not police, but “evil regime” — משטר + רע.
Early yesterday, I got this from one of the many WhatsApp groups we Israelis are on:
If the Israeli police have attacked you with skunk water [DG-used on protesters from water canons], we would appreciate samples.
At the Hebrew University, there is a group of chemists who are trying to figure out what exactly is in the skunk water. They want to see if it’s legal, and they want to open a “purification station” [DG—where people could get the stink out of their clothes, shoes, bodies, etc.] They need samples of the material.
If you have clothes with the skunk water, please put them in a sealed plastic bag and send a WhatsApp message to XXXXXX to arrange to provide your samples.
Apropos police violence, the photo most posted this week was of a physician who was at the protest and who suffered a serious eye injury after being hit by a stream of liquid from the water canon. News sources report that she may lose her sight in her left eye.
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This cartoon was printed atop Hagai Segal’s column, below. The sign on the doorknob says “OPEN,” but of course, there are tire spike strips blocking the way to his office. Even in Makor Rishon, a fairly right-leaning paper, Netanyahu is portrayed as aloof, out of touch, and without many good options for keeping his coalition together that do not come at the expense of the needs of the country.
Hagai Segal is a well known Israeli journalist and author, who served as the editor of the Makor Rishon newspaper from 2014-2023. Here is a small portion of his opinion piece from this past weekend’s paper—the English follows below.
But even this calculation may no longer be relevant. If elections are held in the coming year, and the polls come true, the overwhelming majority of the Jewish public will demand the establishment of a unity government which, among other things, will be formed around the principle of a shared burden [DG—ie, Haredim sharing the burden of military service with everyone else]. One of its first tasks will be the fight against ultra-Orthodox draft evasion from the IDF. It will cancel the financing practices [DG—of Haredi institutions] that assist in this evasion, as well as the shameful law whose preliminary draft passed in the Knesset on the eve of the holiday [Shavuot], just when four more families were informed of the death of their loved ones in Gaza. The rule book will be adapted to our existential need to increase the size of our army.
The ultra-Orthodox parties, it is safe to assume, will stay out. One or two center parties will fill their place until the rabbis of the Haredi sector repent and open a dialogue with the General Manpower Department [DG—branch of the IDF] on how their students can protect the state and their lifestyles at the same time. The State of Israel cannot overcome its enemies when a huge part of its military manpower reserves are not actually mobilized.
The list of soldiers who fell this week in combat in Rafah, including nineteen-year-olds, indicates that the IDF is throwing into the battlefield combat soldiers who have only recently enlisted and have not yet completed their combat training course, due to the growing shortage of manpower. Someone has to fill the place of the fallen soldiers, of the wounded and of the reservists collapsing under the burden, but that someone is not coming to the induction center. That someone uses the Torah as a shovel to dig a path of desertion from the war of mitzvah. The next government will have to enlist him, probably a government without Haredim. Otherwise, Iran could well carry out its plot against us [DG—to destroy the Jewish state] as early as 2040.
Ran Baratz is the founding editor of the Hebrew-language conservative news site Mida . Baratz teaches philosophy, history, and Zionist thought at numerous Israeli institutions, including at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem’s Cornerstones program. He is also a senior faculty member and advisor at Ein Prat Academy outside of Jerusalem. Specializing in Greek Philosophy, Dr. Baratz earned his doctorate, summa cum laude, from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He writes regularly for many publications, including this weekly column in Makor Rishon.
This is a small excerpt of his column; the English translation follows below.
“It’s not enough just to want:
Israel does not lack an offensive spirit, but history shows that it is no substitute for an orderly strategy and analysis of the array of forces. In the current situation, a second front in the north would be a mistake.”
Ran Baratz:
Strategic professionalism lies precisely in wise work on the part of the top brass, in analyzing the array of forces, advantages and weaknesses and outlining the path to victory with a realistic plan. The question is not “if,” but “what, when and how.” Israel today does not lack offensive spirit and determination, but there is no command and political leadership that can provide the proper answers to these professional questions. We lack power, the IDF is small, worn out and insufficiently trained, its leadership is unprofessional and its plans are mediocre or even worse. While we were deteriorating, our enemies were preparing, arming and strengthening.
The frustration created by this gap is understandable, but it does not change the reality. In the current situation, it would be a mistake to start a full-scale war on a second front in the north. Despite all the difficulty, today it is necessary to focus on three preliminary efforts: the investigation and correction of the failed strategic assumptions [DG—referred to as the “conceptzia” in Israel, same word that was used after 1973], the identification and cultivation of a new and professional military elite, and an informed rebuilding of the army. This is the only way in the future we will be able to translate the spirit into a strategy that will lead us—instead of empty slogans, military failure and national disappointment—to victory.