Recently released videos of two hostages have reminded Israelis that time is simply running out. Time may also be running out for thousands of Gazans, who (and let’s leave blame entirely aside) are out of food. Negotiations with Hamas, which does not appear to be feeling any pressure from Israel, are at a standstill. Israel’s pariah status gets worse by the day.
So, what is the agenda for today’s cabinet meeting? There are two items on the list, according to the press:
Beefing up Netanyahu’s security detail, due to increased warnings of threats on his life
Whether or not to fire the Attorney General.
What to do about Gaza, the hostages, Hamas, and our plummeting image will (perhaps) be discussed later in the week.
Does the government not “get it”?
Some people think not. The press did, at least until the hostage videos. On Friday, Yedi’ot ran an article about our international isolation. Even without translation, a look at the graphic kind of makes the point.
AVALANCHE, says the large black headline.
And to the right of that black headline, here’s the sub-headline:
The forecasts in Israel were different, but more and more countries are joining the initiative launched by France. ⚫️Even Germany, a stalwart ally, announced that “the process of recognizing a Palestinian state must begin.” ⚫️ In all, 162 countries support the initiative or are considering it. ⚫️ But in Israel, other than criticizing the declarations, no one is suggesting any alternatives.
A few days ago, I was having a conversation with Howard Wolfson of the Bloomberg Philanthropies (as I mention in the recording, we were actually talking about the relative merits of two recent translations of Homer’s Odyssey), when he raised the issue of the permanent damage that Israel is causing itself, even among Americans.
His sense of urgency was so profound that I asked him to share his message with us, and with Israel’s leaders.
Howard Wolfson is the Education program lead of Bloomberg Philanthropies. In this role, he oversees the Philanthropies’ career and technical education, kindergarten through twelfth grade, and college access and success portfolios.
Wolfson is also instrumental in the policy and political universe of Mike Bloomberg, running his SuperPAC and advising him on politics and communication.
From 2010 to 2013, Wolfson was the New York City Deputy Mayor for Government Affairs and Communications. In this capacity, Wolfson oversaw local, state and federal government relations in addition to helping to craft the Bloomberg Administration’s overall communications strategy. He was particularly involved in the education, transportation, and technology sectors.
Wolfson served as the communications director for Hillary Clinton’s history-making run for the presidency in 2008. He has worked in and out of government, serving as Chief of Staff to Congresswoman Nita Lowey, and as the Executive Director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Wolfson has worked on campaigns at every level of government, advising Charles Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Andrew Cuomo, among others.
Wolfson, a New York native, graduated from the University of Chicago and received a Master’s in history from Duke University.
The link at the top of this posting will take you to the full recording of our conversation; below you will find a transcript for those who prefer to read, prepared for our paid subscribers.
We're going to do something today that I don't believe we've ever done before. We're going to reverse directions, making an exception only because of the urgency of the message we're going to hear. Instead of trying to share with people outside Israel what Israelis are thinking about and feeling, we're going to share with Israelis what is happening to the image of Israel in the hearts and souls of many of those abroad who for a long time were among Israel's staunchest advocates. We're doing this because the case we're going to hear today is more than a curiosity. It cuts to the very security and possibly survival of the State of Israel, which made sharing it feel to me at least, not optional, but an imperative. My guest today is Howard Wolfson. We'll put up a full bio in the notes for today, but very briefly.
Howard Wolfson is the Education Program Lead of Bloomberg Philanthropies. In this role, he oversees the philanthropy's efforts in education at all levels. Howard is also instrumental in the policy and political universe of Mike Bloomberg, running his super PAC and advising him on politics and communication. From 2010 to 2013, Howard Wolfson was the New York City Deputy Mayor for Government affairs and Communications. He was Communications director for Hillary Clinton's history making run for the presidency in 2008. He has serves the Chief of Staff to Congresswoman Nita Lowy and as the Executive Director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The list of accomplishments really goes on and as I mentioned, we will post it in the notes for today's conversation. Bottom line though, Howard Wolfson knows American politics and the American electorate about as well as anyone on the planet. And I will simply add that I've known Howard for a while and most of our conversations have been about Israel in some way, shape, manner or form. And I can attest that Howard is a person who cares deeply about the State of Israel, loves the state of Israel, whose loyalties to the State of Israel, and that will become increasingly important as he begins to speak.
Howard and I were on a call yesterday, completely unrelated to this. At a certain point in our conversation, actually we were speaking about the relative merits of Emily Wilson's and Daniel Mendelsohn's translations of Homer's Odyssey and about Mendelsohn's 2017 book about exploring the Odyssey with his father. Those are the kinds of conversations that are very good for the soul in these troubled and troubling times. But as often happens these days, days our conversation eventually meandered to events in the Middle east, at which point Howard shared with me that he has grave concerns over what is happening to Israel's image across the American political spectrum. He told me that he wondered whether Israel's leaders truly understand how dire Israel's situation is and how what's transpiring now could have grave consequences for Israel's most basic security. Howard told me a bit about what he was thinking, and though I assume that many of Israel's leaders have heard at least some of this, perhaps they haven't heard it all, and they certainly have not heard it expressed this way. I asked Howard if he would share his message with us with a promise that I would do what I could to get it to Israel's highest echelons. He agreed and joins us today. So, Howard, welcome to Israel from the inside, even if today it's more like to Israel from the outside. Thank you for taking the time and for what you're about to share with us. Let's set the stage. Let's imagine that you are sitting at a very large conference table, and around this conference table, along with you, are the Prime Minister, Ron Dermer, other leading members of the cabinet, the multiple heads of Israel's very complex security apparatus, those responsible for telling Israel's story abroad, and more. And let's imagine that this is one of those instances that they were actually willing to listen to someone. Why don't you tell us what it is that you would tell them?
So thank you for that introduction. Thank you for having me. I guess I would start by saying that I come with some humility, and I come in love, humility, because I'm an American, I'm not an Israeli. I haven't given my life over to defending the state of Israel. And I know that the people in the room that you've imagined or many of your listeners have considerably more at stake than I do around this conversation. But I do come in love. I come as a lifelong Zionist, as the son and grandson of Zionists, as someone who believes very deeply in the state of Israel and has significant concerns about what I am seeing that I would like to share. Quite simply, I believe that at least as pertains to the United States, and I think even more dramatically In Western Europe, although with less consequence, the war for hearts and minds here has been lost. And while that is a war that is largely fought online, the implications for Israel's security in real life are quite significant. Let me just quickly stipulate two things that I hope we can all agree. American support for Israel's security is critically important to Israel's well being.
That's one and two. Since America is a democracy, that support is subject to public opinion. It's not immutable. And the reality here is that public opinion is shifting very quickly and very dramatically away from Israel. Gallup, which is the sort of gold standard polling company in the United States and in other places as well, asks Americans every year what they think of Israel. And as recently as 2014, more than 70% of Democrats had a favorable view of Israel, which is pretty good. Even as recently as just before the October 7th attacks, 60% of Democrats were favorable towards Israel, also pretty good. Today that number is a third. And it's even worse among young Democrats. Okay, so maybe you just say, and I can imagine some in the room that you've envisioned saying this, that's just Democrats. They don't like Israel. Now, to be clear, that was not the case just a few years ago. But okay, let's look at independents who make up an increasingly large share of the US Electorate. And there too, support has fallen dramatically. Less than half of independents now have a favorable view of Israel. And even among younger Republicans, Israel is losing support. In 2022, 63% of Republicans under 50 had a positive view of Israel. And now they are roughly split with 50% negative, 48% positive. And among Gen Z Republicans, it's even worse. So I think that we are at a crossroads. Israel is at a crossroads. Now you and others, Danny, have had many discussions with rabbis and people who are considerably smarter and more learned than me to discuss the morality and the implications of what is happening in Gaza. And those conversations are really important. But I'm not a rabbi, I'm not a philosopher. I'm more or less a political hack. My background is in politics and in American public opinion. But I do know something about that. And it's in that context that I am clanging the alarm bell as loudly as I can and hoping that the Israeli public and the decision makers in Israel understand how far Israel has fallen in public approval in the United States and what the implications of that are. I realize it is not the only strategic. It's not the only strategic question that Israel needs to consider, but it is my sense that they're barely considering it at all. And that, to me, feels like either they don't understand what's happening or they don't understand the implications of what's happening. And I've got a little bit of a megaphone here with you, and I want to say it as loudly and clearly as I can.
Well, first of all, thank you for doing that, and thank you for doing it in such stark terms. Let's try to push this a little bit further so people can understand. Let's assume that everything that you're saying is right and you're obviously using figures that are from very reputable places. How does this play out? Now, I'm going to split the question into two parts. Let's leave the personality of the president, presidents and vice president right now out of the question, out of the picture, just as you see it. And the American public opinion moves away from Israel. How does this play out in a way that Israelis should care about? Why should Israelis not mutter over their falafel, you know, well, I don't care what Americans think of me. You know, whatever. We need America in a lot of different kinds of ways. But I think it would be very helpful for people to listen and to hear you, who've been so internal to the political process in so many ways, explain to Israelis, here's why you need America. And I'm sure that Bibi Netanyahu and Ron Dermer and the chief of staff, they all get this, but we're obviously speaking not only to them, we're speaking to a much larger group.
So number one is, okay, so they don't like us. That's unfortunate. We like to be liked, all of us. But what's really at stake, I guess second question is I'll just put out three, and then you can take them. And if you forget them, I'll hope I won't forget them. And then we can. We can see the second one is a lot of Israelis will say, you know what? I don't really care what people think. I don't even care what Congress thinks, because we. We've got Donald Trump and Donald Trump, whatever I think of him in other areas, he's doing the right thing for us. He's supporting us, he's supporting Bibi. He did the right thing with the B2s at Fordow for whatever reasons. Donald Trump is in our camp, so why should I be worried? That's question number two. And question number three is you said Israel is basically losing the war. The war may be lost. And I guess my follow up question to the war being lost, which I believe was how you put it, but I could be wrong, is let's imagine Israel has elections either before they're scheduled in October 26' or when they're scheduled in October 26'.
And a very different kind of personality takes the helm in Israel, which is by no means guaranteed, by the way. By no means guaranteed. But let's imagine, I mean Yair Lapid which is not going to happen. Naftali Benet, which is perhaps going to happen. Who knows? Is all the damage that has been caused reparable? So A, why should I care? B, isn't Donald Trump my insurance policy against having to care? And C, if the war has been lost for opinion, can the war be re won over the course of time?
So all great questions and just to be clear, when I say the war is lost, I'm talking about the war for hearts and minds. In many ways, Israel has had spectacular military battles and you know, we have to think about those in a different context. But the war for hearts and minds. Let me take your second question first. So Donald Trump has occasionally mused about running for a third term. He's not constitutionally eligible to do that. I think given his age and the constraints on him, it's unlikely that he will be president. After four years, there will be a new American president. The Democratic Party, as we've discussed, has really shifted away from Israel. And it's possible and even I think likely that there will be any number of Democrats who are running for president who will be considerably less inclined to be helpful to Israel than, let's say Joe Biden was. But even if you get a Republican to replace Donald Trump, there's no evidence that that Republican would be as favorable to Israel as let's say Donald Trump has been. If you believe that Donald Trump has.
Been, or at least as Donald Trump has been until this point. Because that could also change.
Correct. You know, Donald Trump's views change and his vice president, J.D. Vance, who I think will probably be the leading frontrunner for the Republican nomination, doesn't seem to have the same kinds of feelings towards Israel that Donald Trump does. He is much more an American firster when you listen to him talk about foreign policy in Israel. He is far less sympathetic to Israel than, let's say, his boss than Donald Trump is. And I don't think there's any indication that he would be nearly as favorable towards Israel as Trump has been. So Trump is not king. He is not going to be president forever, there will be a new president. And I think there's every reason to believe that based on the current trajectory, that that president will not be nearly as favorable as both Joe Biden was and as Donald Trump has been. So that's the first question. Why does it matter? So, you know, look, Israel is in many respects a spectacularly strong nation. It has a strong economy, startup nation. But, you know, as we have seen in the last couple of years, at critical moments, it has depended on American military power.
It has depended on American arms, both in terms of resupplying what Israelis need on the ground, and at critical moments, it has depended on American ships to shoot down Iranian missiles. So when Joe Biden stationed American naval vessels in the Mediterranean off the coast of Israel, those vessels were used to help shoot down Iranian missiles. And of course, we know what Donald Trump just did at Fordow and in Iran. That matters. You know, there are people who understand the military implications of this far more than I do. But I have read in many places that many more Israelis would have suffered injury or even death at the hands of, or as the result of the Iranian missile barrage had the United States not been aggressively engaged in taking those missiles out. Now, again, Israel's got a lot of strength. Israel's got a lot of equities. My guess is that there are people in Israel who are thinking about what, what they will need to do to become more self sufficient if the United States were to walk away. I think that those kinds of conversations, by the way, are happening all across the world. You're certainly seeing it in Western Europe where England, France, Poland, other countries are wondering, can we continue to count on the United States?
What do we need to do to become more self sufficient? Germany, certainly those kinds of conversations are occurring. I'm sure they're beginning to occur in Israel. But you'd probably not want to depend on a world in which the United States was essentially absent from providing arms and assistance to Israel. And I think on the current trajectory, you could imagine a situation in which that becomes more rather than less likely. And so, you know, Donald Trump's not going to be around forever. I think, I think, I hope most Israelis understand that there is a, that they, there is a value to a strong U.S-Israel relationship that helps maintain Israeli military strength and. Sorry, Dan, what was your third question?
The third question is if somebody replaces Bibi Netanyahu in October 26 elections, which is not a foregone conclusion, he is going to run for another term. That's pretty clear. Like what's going to perhaps be the case in America. And he could very well win. But let's assume for a minute that he doesn't win. And let's just take a guy who I think everybody thought was, you know, handled him, comported himself reasonably. You know, you could love his policies or not love his policies. You could believe him because he did not exactly stand by his promises about who he would be in a coalition with. But Naftali Benet's like a decent guy. He's never been accused of being rabidly right wing, rabidly left wing. He's never been accused of graft or anything of the sort. Let's just say hypothetically that it's a Naftali Benet kind of person who, who is more palatable to international leaders and maybe strikes people as a little bit less problematic on the personal level than Bibi. Can Israel repair the damage that's been done with Republicans, young Republicans, Democrats and young Democrats and all those independents that you mentioned?
Well, some of it will require a change in behavior, right. So it's certainly not automatic. I mean, I do think that there are some Democrats who respond negatively towards Israel just because Bibi Netanyahu is the prime minister and they so deeply dislike Bibi Netanyahu. So his departure could change that dynamic. I wouldn't quite say overnight, but quickly. But I think it goes beyond that. It goes deeper than that. And there are a set of challenges that I think Israel will face whoever the next president is and whoever the next prime minister is. And those challenges are being very much exacerbated by what is happening in Gaza now. And I don't think they are easily repaired. I worry that if we continue on this course, if Israel continues on this course, the change may be permanent. And, you know, I suppose my message is very respectfully, because again, it's very easy to sit in Manhattan and opine on these issues very respectfully to Israelis. First, please understand what is happening in the United States. Don't pretend it's not happening, don't ignore it, recognize that it's happening, and please understand the implications of it. And as I said, it's not clear to me that those things are happening.
I mean, when I talk to friends in Israel, people are understandably more focused on what's happening on the ground in Israel. And it's not clear to me that they fully understand how much public opinion has shifted against Israel in the United States because traditionally the United States was so pro Israel. So please understand this is happening and this is not. Nobody's crying wolf here. This is very clear public opinion polling and that there are real world implications to it. It's not, oh, who cares whether they don't like us? It matters if you assume that Israel isn't completely self sufficient. It matters what the United States public opinion is about Israel.
Well, by the way, I think we just point out it's very obvious, but Israel is not completely self sufficient. There has been, as you know and as you alluded to before, a tremendous amount of hand wringing about how we got ourselves into a situation where we're not manufacturing our own bombs and munitions and we can be held not hostage. That's a bad word to use. But pressured deeply by the threat of weapons not coming. But just to give people an idea, since October 7th, the United States has provided Israel with 14,000, 2,000 pound bombs and it's provided Israel with a hundred bunker buster bombs and it's provided Israel with 50,000 artillery shells. I mean, that's just a small part of the list. If you go on any place online you can see it and Israel, America's, America has basically provided the weapons with which we fought these wars. So Israel can manufacture a bit of this and a bit of that. But we are clear, very dependent on America. And I think that the, the warning is, is, is very, very important. And it's, by the way, not only important to the people sitting around the proverbial conference table that we've imagined for ourselves.
Israeli citizens need to understand it because they're the ones who are going to go to the polls and they're the ones who can actually pressure the government even in the short run before there are elections. You know, you and I, Howard, had this conversation yesterday. First we're talking about the Iliad and the Odyssey, and then we talked about all kinds of much less pleasant things and we agreed to have this conversation this morning. When I got this morning's paper in the Yediot Ahronot on the front page there is actually a letter from Jake Sullivan. Jake Sullivan has actually written a public letter to the Israeli public saying something. I haven't read it in full yet. It's very long. I understand that it's been translated in English online, people can probably find it. But again, you're not the only person with a huge background in American politics who cares deeply about Israel who's starting to say, I've got to ring this bell loud and clear. So when there's people like you and Jake Sullivan, I presume others follow, who are saying to Israeli officials and to the Israeli Rank and file. Something very dangerous is happening in this really sacred relationship with the American Jewish, with the American political world and the Israeli Jewish community. It's really critically important to say I really appreciate it. Is there anything else that you want to add by way of rounding this out or want to leave it with that for our listeners?
Yeah, I guess. Look, and you touched on this. There is this sense that I know Israelis have that the world is against us and it will always be against us. And antisemitism has existed for thousands of years, and this is just more of that. And I know in some senses, antisemitism is kind of the background noise of our lives, and it's always a factor. And. And that is true. And, you know, people can debate the morality of this war, and people do, and they have. But what I'm suggesting is people think about the actual practical implications of what's happening. Put aside what's fair, put aside what's accurate. You know, nations have been waging information warfare and propaganda campaigns for as long as there has been warfare, but they're not sideshows. Right. They're integral to success and failure. And right now, in my view, Israel is getting absolutely decimated in that arena. And that may not be fair, it may not be accurate, but I think those questions of fairness and accuracy, they've become largely irrelevant. It's not about fairness and accuracy. It's about effectiveness and about impact. And from where I sit, Israel, you know, has two stated war aims, defeat Hamas and recover its hostages. And I support both of those things. But I would add a third important war aim, which is don't lose the United States in the process. Don't lose the United States in the process. And right now, it's not clear to me that Israel has a plan, frankly, to accomplish any of those things, but certainly the third
I unfortunately agree with you, I certainly agree about the war in Gaza seeming to have no plan. There's no progress on the hostages. And I agree there's not even a person you can point to in Israel and say, oh, she or he is the person who's supposed to be coordinating this effort. There's not even that she or he person. At least there is a chief of staff. At least there is a person who's responsible for the hostage thing. Whether it's working or not is a separate question. We don't even really have a person responsible for this, and Israelis know that. But I think you've brought home to us in a very clear way how critically important this is and how dire could be the consequences if we don't begin to take this very, very, very seriously. It's a very sobering message to hear a day or two after Tisha Be'Av, after the 9th of AV, when we commemorate destructions of the past, we cannot afford a destruction in the future. And in order to avoid one, we have to be very, very, very smart and strategic. And Howard Wolfson, for helping us understand a very significant part of the picture that we need to appreciate my thank you. My gratitude for your for your forthrightness, for being willing to convey a painful message and for your time on this. And I look forward to the next time that you and I speak. We'll talk a little bit more about Homer, and hopefully the news from the Middle east will be much, much better. Thanks again.
Thank you. Appreciate it.
