What do Palestinians believe about what transpired on October 7? Do they endorse the attack? Who, if anyone, has committed war crimes? And whom do they support to be their leaders in the the future?
Shows how important it is for israel to win this war (remove Hamas from power in Gaza, with no chance of recuperating power in any part of the Palestinian territories) and be seen to win it.
Hmmm ... So there is support for the hypothesis of the war radicalizing more people? On the other hand, maybe there would have been even MORE radicalizing if Israel had just sit on her hands and looked weak?
What is really noticeable in this research paper is the absolute disconnect between Palestinians in Gaza and the Average Russian Citizen . Gaza and Russia? No Press Freedom, No Descent.
1. "750 were interviewed face to face in the West Bank and 481 in the Gaza Strip" - WB Palestinians are not fully experiencing the aftermath, not ruled by Hamas, and have very different opinions. The combined responses thus require a large grain of salt, as they underrepresent Gazans - those with the most at stake and direct experience.
2. "Despite the large representative sample, the margin of error for this poll is +/-4. The increase in the margin of error is due to the lack of precision regarding the number of residents who stayed in their homes, or in shelters, in the northern parts of the Gaza Strip which we did not sample" - That's not how ME calculations work. It has nothing to do with substantive concerns about representativeness, so they just threw that in for the sob factor. What they appear to be providing, without saying so, is ME for subsamples. I guess there's nothing wrong with that but it's odd not to be transparent about it. (NB: ME is a straight calculation (z*√p(1-p) / n), and using their numbers with a 95% confidence level and Palestinian pop estimates gives us the normal max of 3 for the total sample. It is 4% for both subsamples (ME increases inversely & disproportionately as the sample size decreases). Note that if instead they manually adjusted the ME to account for war, etc., the subsample MEs would similarly need to be adjusted up - in the Gaza Strip only.
3. Further questions arise vis-à-vis subsets. It's probably not worth going into the details since we don't have the questions or response options, but note off the top that they apparently asked if the war was an Iranian plot OR three other things combined. You don't have to be a stats whiz to see what's wrong with this framing, if one were interested in neutral facts. Even then, note that more than 5x the proportion of Gazans, versus WBers, report believing the 07 October massacre was driven by Iranian interests more than all of the three other things combined (27% G vs 5% WB). That's not people loving the party line. Nearly half (40%) of the Gazans think this episode will be catastrophic, although two more questions show much smaller percentages expecting Israeli success that ends Palestinian Gaza, so who knows what was actually asked and what people thought they meant when they answered.
What is glaring is how few understand what Hamas did to start this war.
Shows how important it is for israel to win this war (remove Hamas from power in Gaza, with no chance of recuperating power in any part of the Palestinian territories) and be seen to win it.
Hmmm ... So there is support for the hypothesis of the war radicalizing more people? On the other hand, maybe there would have been even MORE radicalizing if Israel had just sit on her hands and looked weak?
I think there will probably be more radicalizing either way.
What is really noticeable in this research paper is the absolute disconnect between Palestinians in Gaza and the Average Russian Citizen . Gaza and Russia? No Press Freedom, No Descent.
Believe what their told ,or forced to believe.
1. "750 were interviewed face to face in the West Bank and 481 in the Gaza Strip" - WB Palestinians are not fully experiencing the aftermath, not ruled by Hamas, and have very different opinions. The combined responses thus require a large grain of salt, as they underrepresent Gazans - those with the most at stake and direct experience.
2. "Despite the large representative sample, the margin of error for this poll is +/-4. The increase in the margin of error is due to the lack of precision regarding the number of residents who stayed in their homes, or in shelters, in the northern parts of the Gaza Strip which we did not sample" - That's not how ME calculations work. It has nothing to do with substantive concerns about representativeness, so they just threw that in for the sob factor. What they appear to be providing, without saying so, is ME for subsamples. I guess there's nothing wrong with that but it's odd not to be transparent about it. (NB: ME is a straight calculation (z*√p(1-p) / n), and using their numbers with a 95% confidence level and Palestinian pop estimates gives us the normal max of 3 for the total sample. It is 4% for both subsamples (ME increases inversely & disproportionately as the sample size decreases). Note that if instead they manually adjusted the ME to account for war, etc., the subsample MEs would similarly need to be adjusted up - in the Gaza Strip only.
3. Further questions arise vis-à-vis subsets. It's probably not worth going into the details since we don't have the questions or response options, but note off the top that they apparently asked if the war was an Iranian plot OR three other things combined. You don't have to be a stats whiz to see what's wrong with this framing, if one were interested in neutral facts. Even then, note that more than 5x the proportion of Gazans, versus WBers, report believing the 07 October massacre was driven by Iranian interests more than all of the three other things combined (27% G vs 5% WB). That's not people loving the party line. Nearly half (40%) of the Gazans think this episode will be catastrophic, although two more questions show much smaller percentages expecting Israeli success that ends Palestinian Gaza, so who knows what was actually asked and what people thought they meant when they answered.